After a few bad seasons, Louisville decided to part ways with Coach Kenny Payne, whose replacement has four consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances.
With over a decade of head coaching experience, Pat Kelsey earned the high-exposure job in the State of Kentucky, while embracing the challenge of lifting the Cardinals out of the years of mediocrity its fanbase had to endure.
In two months, Kelsey and his staff managed to land the following players:
This article will focus on the value of Louisville's incoming transfers concerning their biggest areas of development. According to ShotQuality.com, the Cardinals ranked outside the top 300 in both their halfcourt offense and pick-and-roll defense.
Therefore, adding offensive creativity, multiple ball handlers, and ball-moving and playmaking big men were the areas of focus. Looking at the additions, Edwards Jr., Hadley, and Hepburn are the three names that immediately make the Cardinals one of the more dangerous ACC teams in terms of ball handling and offensive production.
Complementary pieces such as Aly Khalifa and Aboubacar Traore give them much-needed creativity in the frontcourt as both a passer and a screener. With Koren Johnson and Reyne Smith, Coach Kelsey adds a duo of proven shooters who will enjoy many open three-point attempts.
The million-dollar question Coach Kelsey has to answer is how quickly a renewed team via the portal will lead to success during conference play. Coaching in combination with chemistry among new personnel is crucial to their potential success. Last year's Texas Tech is an example that Louisville fans can look forward to.
With the combination of first-year general manager Kellen Buffington and head coach Grant McCasland, Texas Tech completed its roster with many transfer portal additions. After a successful year in the Big 12, they entered the NCAA Tournament as a sixth seed, losing to NC State who marched to the National Championship Game.
In the chart above, the goal of the ShotQuality metric is not to show the outcome of the offense, but more so the value. Louisville's early-season injuries among their big men hurt their style of play last year. This led to their half-court offense being among the worst in college basketball.
By addressing their need for ball handlers and offensive creativity, Louisville will likely be among the top 80 most efficient half-court teams next season. That's a big jump, but they'll have the personnel in Traore and Khalifa as playmaking hubs in the frontcourt, combined with Hepburn, Hadley, and Edwards Jr. as proven playmakers in their guard and wing rotations.
As shown in the first graphic, Louisville valued passers and experience in their transfer portal hunt with the majority of their transfers being upperclassmen who had proven their production value last year.
A good measurement of what Coach Kelsey will try to exploit at Louisville by having many more resources available is shown in the chart above. We saw him value that involved screening, with the Charleston offense being the most efficient on pick-and-roll and off-screen shooting plays. That's the emphasis of his additions so far to Louisville. Adding the shooting depth comes with their style of play to keep the ball moving and find open threes, as Charleston ranked 7th in the country in frequency of catch-and-shoot threes, but they didn't make as many of them. The play below is an example of the motion-based ball movement style of play Coach Kelsey typically runs:
Now by knowing the style of play, here's my prediction for the numbers produced among the top players:
— Terrence Edwards Jr.: 13 points on 45%+ shooting from the field
— J'Vonne Hadley: 12 points, 3 assists on 35%+ shooting from three
— Aboubacar Traore: 10 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists on 55%+ shooting
— Chucky Hepburn: 10 points, 3 assists on 45%+ shooting from the field
— Koren Johnson: 8 points on 40%+ shooting from three
— Reyne Smith: 6 points on 40%+ shooting from three
— Aly Khalifa: 5 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists
Louisville turned into my favorite team in the ACC next season due to them being ready to have a great season after years of suffering. I predict them to be a top-four team in conference play and have their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2019.
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